ASCVD 10-year risk (Pooled Cohort Equations)
10-year risk of first MI, fatal CHD or stroke from the AHA/ACC 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations. Ages 40–79.
About this calculator
Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) is a 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk model for adults 40-79 without known CVD. Developed by ACC/AHA 2013 (Circulation, 2014) using four cohort studies (Framingham, ARIC, CHS, CARDIA), validated in 25,000+ patients. Inputs. Age, sex, race (white/African American), systolic BP, antihypertensive use, total cholesterol, HDL, diabetes, smoking. Estimates 10-year risk of MI, stroke, and CV death. Interpretation. <5% – low risk, lifestyle. 5-7.5% – borderline, discuss statins with risk modifiers (early CVD family history, CRP >2, CAC scan). 7.5-20% – intermediate, moderate-intensity statin. >=20% – high, high-intensity statin (atorvastatin 40-80 or rosuvastatin 20-40), per ACC/AHA 2018. Limitations. Overestimates risk in white women and elderly with low BP – per Kaiser Permanente validation. Not validated for other ethnicities: Hispanic, Asian, South Asian. ESC 2021 European guideline prefers SCORE2 / SCORE2-OP. For ages 20-39 ACC/AHA recommends lifetime risk (30-year horizon).
Source
Formula version: goff-2013-aha-2024-v1